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After New Year's Day steel market will be dominated

Sep 05,2018
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The last week of 2017, the domestic steel market prices to collapse, the construction of steel prices continue to lead the decline, some areas fell more than 300RMB. Lange experts said, in the seasonal decline in demand, high price level, inventory continuous growth in the case of New Year's Day after the opening, Steel city overall pressure remains large, domestic steel prices will continue to fall mainly.


Seasonal demand has weakened as the weather has become colder and the market has been deserted after a concentrated rush. and the current price level is high, steel expensive deal with resistance, the market fear of high psychological breeding, steel mills, traders not smooth sales, inventory continued to grow, superimposed the end of the year's high level of capital, business capital withdrawal will be strong, resulting in steel prices began to appear continuously downward, especially the early rise of the long material prices first, the fall nearly 400RMB.


From the supply and demand relationship, the current terminal demand is shrinking rapidly, due to the early rush, looting, demand in advance concentrated release, resulting in late demand limbo, and winter market is afraid of high psychology, the market face "lean". And with the full implementation of the limit, even beyond the expectations, the blast furnace operating rate has basically reduced to the limits, coupled with the air quality has indeed improved, in previous years, "Haze Lock Capital" of the weather in this year greatly reduced, the late limit of the increase in the strength of the space has been small.


From the inventory point of view, the domestic construction of steel stocks have been in a row for two consecutive weeks, and direct hair type steel construction steel inventory has been three consecutive weeks to rebound. Although the national construction of steel stock is still 23% lower than the same period last year, Beijing-Tianjin-Hangzhou and other major cities inventory only about half of the same period last year, at a low level of nearly 7 years. However, from now to mid-March the traditional sales season, there are about 70 days of inventory growth period, large agreement households, including direct-type steel mills are expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory before the arrival of their own inventory level to the minimum, so the willingness to reduce shipments is still strong.


There is the problem of price, although the recent emergence of a substantial decline, but the vast majority of the finished steel prices in more than 4000 RMB, this price than the 2017 annual average price is still high 300-500 RMB, prices have continued to the downward space.

 
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